Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KALY 081402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1002 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a strong cold front, cold and windy conditions
are expected this afternoon into this evening with some passing snow
showers and flurries.  Dry weather will return on Wednesday, but it
will remain chilly. Although it will still fairly cool, temperatures
will start to moderate late in the week with another storm system
impacting the region for late Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- Wind Advisory in effect for Mohawk & Schoharie Valleys,
  Helderbergs, Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires due to expected
  wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Discussion:

As of 1000 AM EDT...A cold front passed through the region early
this morning and is now exiting offshore eastern New England.
Behind the front, temps have been steady or falling this morning
with readings in the 20s to mid 30s.

With a large upper level trough moving through the area, plenty
of clouds are still in place. Some breaks are occurring in
valley areas, but much of the region is fairly cloudy thanks to
the stratocu in place. Sky cover will average mostly cloudy to
overcast through the day for most locations.

Some snow showers are occurring, mainly for northern, western
and high terrain areas thanks to a combination of the cyclonic
flow, upslope flow and lake enhancement. Much of this activity
is fairly light and brief in duration, but there may be
occasional snow showers and flurries through the entire day.
While most areas will see little snow accumulation today, some
high terrain areas (mainly over the Adirondacks or southern VT)
could see an inch or two of accumulation.

The combination of good mixing and a strong pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through the day today. The highest gusts
will be in the 30 to 50 mph range, especially within the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. Highest gusts will be
from the late morning through late afternoon hours, but it will
still windy right into the evening as well. A few downed trees
or limbs are expected, so Wind Advisory remains in effect and
some power outages are possible today.

Temps won`t be rising much this afternoon thanks to the cold
advection in place, so highs won`t be much different than
current readings. Temps will be in the 20s and 30s for this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Gusty winds and lake enhanced/upslope snow showers will
gradually come to an end this evening and tonight as an area of
high pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic from the Great
Lakes. Given the system will be passing south of the area,
northwest flow will remain in place and keep us in below normal
temperatures through Wednesday. Highs are expected to range from
the upper 20s (terrain) to mid 40s (valleys). This high will
keep dry conditions in place through early Thursday morning
before moving offshore.

Out next system arrives thanks to a strengthening shortwave across
the mid Mississippi River Valley and development of a surface low
over the Ohio River Valley. This low is progged to move northeast
into western NY by Thursday night, with precipitation chances
increasing across the area with increasing moisture and WAA aloft.
Most will see plain rain with temperatures well above freezing,
though a mix of rain/snow to all snow is possible across higher
elevations of the Catskills, ADKs, southern Greens, Berkshires and
Taconics. Amounts should remain low, with latest NBM probabilities
showing a low chance (20-40%) of snowfall greater than 1 inch. QPF
is favored to remain below a quarter of an inch through Friday
morning, though higher amounts are possible mainly outside of the
downslope areas north of the Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend. NBM probabilities
for greater than 1.00" rainfall are in the 30-50% range south and
east of the Capital District for the 48-hr period until 8 am Sunday.

Discussion:

A mid and upper level trough will be over the eastern third of CONUS
to start the extended.  Low pressure organizes over the Piedmont/Mid
Atlantic Corridor Friday morning. The cyclone moves towards PA/NY
with increasing moisture advection with anomalous PWAT values for
periods of rain to develop during the day.  The trough may become
negatively tilted and the mid level low closes off near the central
PA/NY border. Some uncertainty continues with the track and
evolution of the wave in the ensembles.  QPF may range from a half
inch to inch or more.  WPC has locations south of the Capital
District in a Marginal Risk in Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, but
uncertainty still exists in QPF placement in timing.  NBM
probabilities are in the 40-70% range for at least 0.50" of rainfall
across eastern NY and western New England for the 24-hr period
ending 12Z/SAT.  Some light snow accums will be possible over the
southern Dacks and southern Greens with a couple inches or less with
cooling of the column down with the heavier pcpn. Highs Friday will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys and upper 30s to mid
40s over the higher terrain. Lows fall back into the 30s to lower
40s.

Saturday...periods of rain may continue in the morning, but the dry
slot to the system may cut off the pcpn over most of the forecast
area in the afternoon, aside from light showery activity with the
upper low.  The 48-hr NBM probabilities for at least one inch of
rainfall from 12Z/8am Fri to 12Z/8am Sun are 30-50% south and east
of Albany. Highs Sat will remain a little cooler than normal with
40s to lower 50s for highs and lows in the 30s with isolated to
scattered showers diminishing from the upper low and sfc wave near
the coast.

Sunday into Monday drier weather works back in.  Periods of clouds
and isolated light showers may persist to close the weekend with the
upper low near New England with seasonable temps.  High pressure
builds in Sunday night into Monday. Mid/upper level heights rise
upstream over the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast.  Temps
rebound back above normal by close to 10 degrees with highs mainly
in the 50s to lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...A cold front continues to move across
western New England this morning with some rain to snow
showers. Flight conditions have risen back to VFR levels at
KALB/KGFL/KPOU with sct-bkn clouds at 3.5-5 kft AGL and mid
level clouds 8-10 kft AGL. KPSF continues to be IFR/LIFR with
some snow reducing vsbys and lowering cigs to IFR levels. The
snow will diminish around 12-13Z/TUE. Cigs should remain at VFR
levels in the 3.5-5.0 kft AGL range in the late morning into the
afternoon. KPSF could have some snow showers after 18Z/Tue with
reductions back to MVFR range and a PROB30 group was continued.
VCSH groups were kept in at KGFL too.  VFR conditions are
expected after 00Z/WED with sct-bkn stratocumulus or some mid
level clouds around. The clouds may begin to decrease after
06Z/WED especially south and east of KALB.

The winds due a strengthening sfc pressure gradient and deep
mixing will increase from the west to northwest in the late
morning and will continue into the early to mid pm at 15-23 KT
with some gusts 28-40 KT with the greatest gusts at KALB/KPSF.
Some low-level turbulence will be possible in the afternoon
into the early evening. The winds will slightly decrease by
00Z/WED with west/northwest winds 10-20 KT with some gusts still
in the 25-35 KT range. After 06Z/WED the sfc pressure gradient
will continue to weak with west/northwest winds of 8-15 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-
     047>054-061.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula