Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

746
FXUS61 KALY 070753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall leading to
isolated to scattered flash flooding, especially from the
Capital District south and eastwards. Tomorrow will be mainly
dry and less humid. Monday will start off dry, but rain chances
increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday ahead of our next cold
frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

 -Additional moderate to heavy rain expected early this morning
  into this afternoon. Flood watch extended through 3 PM
  Saturday from the Capital District south and eastwards.

Discussion:
As of 3:55 AM EDT...Currently, GOES 16 WV imagery shows a broad
upper trough N/NE of the Great Lakes, with a separate upper
shortwave tracking from the Ohio Valley towards the Mid
Atlantic. At the surface, a broad remnant low circulation
remains over northern PA, with a wind shift boundary stretching
from the Southern Tier northeastwards into Central NY. Numerous
showers and storms are developing in the vicinity of this
boundary as the southern upper shortwave approaches. Most of our
region is rain-free right now, and there has been some patchy
fog that has developed with calm winds and abundant low-level
moisture. An SPS for locally dense fog was issued for portions
of the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, and it may need to be
expanded over the next couple hours. Temperatures are currently
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and will not drop more than another
couple degrees between now and sunrise.

The showers should spread into our region over the next few
hours, and they will then track southeastwards today, exiting
into southern New England by 3-5 PM. These showers will pose a
threat for isolated to scattered flash flooding, as well as
urban, poor drainage, and low-lying ponding of water...

...The focus for the heaviest rain will be for areas in the
Flood Watch, or from the northeastern Catskills and Capital
District south and east. CIRA ALPW shows low and mid-level
moisture advection into our region early this morning ahead of
this boundary. PWATs max out at 1.5 - 1.6" per the HREF mean,
which is above the 90th percentile 2-week moving average per the
SPC sounding climatology. Warm cloud depths reach 10-12 kft in
this moist environment. Instability is not overly impressive,
but the HREF mean indicates up to 500-750 J/kg developing south
and east of the Capital District after sunrise this morning.
Given the above setup, rainfall rates of up to 1-2" per hour
look possible today, with the HREF showing low (10%) probs for
>3" in 6 hrs for some areas south and east of the Capital
District. Storm motions will be on the order of 15-20 kts today,
but with a somewhat boundary-parallel component to the upper
flow some training and backbuilding of cells will be possible
today. The threat for flash flooding will be greatest where any
training occurs, especially if this happens over urban areas
and/or areas that already saw significant rainfall amounts
yesterday. Thus, the flood watch was extended in time until 3 pm
today and expanded in area to cover more of the Mid Hudson
Valley.

Lack of better instability and shear out ahead of this first
boundary this morning should prevent much of a severe threat
with any storms that develop. However, hi-res guidance,
especially the HRRR which is handing the current setup well,
indicated the potential for up to 750-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE
overlapping with >40 kt of deep-layer shear across portions of
the Mohawk Valley, ADKs, and upper Hudson Valley for a few hours
this afternoon and early evening. With the main upper trough
tracking by to the north and a secondary cold frontal boundary
dropping southwards, there may be enough forcing for ascent to
overcome low and mid-level dry air and result in convective
initiation. While confidence is admittedly low on how
widespread any storms will be. However, if storms can develop
here this afternoon (timing generally 4-8 pm), and take
advantage of this favorable parameter space, then we could see
a few instances of marginally severe wind gusts and/or
marginally severe hail despite the fact that SPC has opted not
to place this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. In
fact, with counterclockwise turning hodographs and steepening
low-level lapse rates, hail actually seems to be more of a
threat here than wind. Convection should die out quickly after
sunset. Highs today will be mainly in the 70s, with some upper
60s in the high terrain, and it will remain muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight through Sunday...The upper shortwave trough/shortwave
move off to our east, and surface high pressure builds into the
region beneath confluent flow aloft. This will help to push a
cold frontal boundary south through the region, and it will
settle near the I-84 corridor by tomorrow. Rising heights aloft
keep us mainly dry through this timeframe, although a few
showers will be possible near the I-84 corridor tomorrow evening
ahead of our next system. Behind the cold front, winds turn to
the north and eventually the east as the surface high slides by
to the north. This will result in lower humidity with dew points
dropping back into the 50s, although temperatures will not be
much colder behind the front. Lows tonight will be in the 50s,
with highs tomorrow in the upper 70s to around 80 for most
areas.

Sunday night through Monday...Deep upper troughing moves into
the western Great Lakes, while an upper shortwave becomes
negatively tilted as it rounds the eastern periphery of this
upper trough/upper low. This will allow for a surface low to
track northwards through the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night,
and it will lift the aforementioned frontal boundary back north
as a warm front as it does so. While this could result in some
scattered showers, there is uncertainty about the coverage (or
lack thereof) of these showers with a strengthening ridge of
high pressure at the surface building in from the E/NE and
another area of low pressure off the east coast potentially
blocking the better moisture transport from reaching our region.
It may take a while for the warm front to lift north of our
region with some cold air damming due to the low-level easterly
flow, but we should eventually break out into the warm sector
Monday, especially for southern areas. Highs will be mainly in
the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys). With an overall lack of
large-scale forcing, Monday looks relatively dry, although there
could be a few scattered showers for western areas in the
afternoon ahead of an approaching front. More details on this
frontal passage in the long term below...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High probability (60-80%+) of showers/thunderstorms Monday night
into Tuesday.

Discussion:

Strong upper level trough across Great Lakes region with associated
cold/occluded front approaching Monday night into Tuesday brings
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Depending on the exact
timing of main frontal passage, there could be some stronger
thunderstorms given strong mid level wind fields (H500 winds 40-
60KT) and rapid cooling aloft. In the wake of frontal system,
persistent upper level troughing across SE Canada should keep breezy
conditions along with additional isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon hours for areas north of I-90. It also looks quite breezy,
with NBM probs for wind gusts >30 mph over the 24 hour period ending
2 AM Thursday and 2 AM Friday as high as 30-50% within the Mohawk
Valley and Capital Region and 50-80% for higher elevations across
the Berkshires.

Changeable temperatures through the week, with below normal temps
Tuesday with clouds/showers (highs 60s/70s) trending closer to
normal for Wed-Fri (daytime highs 70s/lower 80s, nighttime lows
50s/lower 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and fog will continue to develop at the TAF
sites over the next few hours with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing and persisting through around 12Z/Sat. Showers are
expected to overspread the TAF sites from west to east between
10Z-14Z/Sat before tapering off from NW to SE between
17Z-21Z/Sat. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely within these
showers, with a few heavy downpours possible at KALB/KPSF and
KPOU and perhaps some thunder at KPOU. In the wake of these
showers, Cigs should improve to VFR later this afternoon. A
secondary cold front could trigger additional isolated
showers/thunderstorms between 22Z/Sat and 01Z/Sun, with greatest
chance (20-30%) at KGFL. Some MVFR Vsbys may develop after
03Z/Sun as patchy ground fog develops.

Light/variable winds will trend into the northeast to north at
4-8 KT Saturday morning, then become light/variable later this
afternoon/evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ047>054-
     058>061-063>066.
MA...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL